Reconstructing Ukraine and Romania’s Schengen Area Prospects: A Detailed Analysis

Reconstructing Ukraine and Romania’s Schengen Area Prospects: A Detailed Analysis

The Potential Impact of Ukraine’s Reconstruction

With Ukraine’s imminent rebuilding effort estimated to require an investment running into the hundreds of billions of Euros, countries across the globe are vying to secure their share of the project. The reconstruction necessitates billions of tons of raw materials, materials, and fuels, primarily sourced from the “factories of the world” – China, India, and the Arab countries.

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The transportation of these supplies to Ukraine presents two potential routes, dictated by Romania’s status in relation to the Schengen area. Without Romania in the Schengen area, materials would be shipped from China and India via a complex and lengthy maritime route. This route would pass through the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Red Sea, Suez Canal, Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic Ocean, English Channel, North Sea, and Baltic Sea, eventually being unloaded in Western European ports and transported to Ukraine. This option, however, is estimated to cost around $10,000 per container and take approximately 80 days.

How Romania’s Schengen Area Inclusion Could Change the Game

If Romania were to join the Schengen area, the route would change significantly. Vessels would travel via the South China Sea, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Red Sea, Suez Canal, Aegean Sea, Marmara Sea, and Black Sea. The goods would then be unloaded in Eastern European and Turkish ports and transported to Ukraine. This alternative would reduce the cost to around $8,000 per container and shorten the journey to approximately 50 days.

According to Dragoș Damian, director general at Terapia Cluj and executive director at PRIMER, the potential inclusion of Romania and Bulgaria in the Schengen area could drastically alter maritime routes. This could impact business interests worth tens to hundreds of billions.

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Political Hurdles in Schengen Inclusion

Despite the potential benefits, Damian notes that Romania and Bulgaria stand little chance of joining the Schengen area in the next European Parliament cycle. According to him, the deciding factor is not political agreements, border security, or cohesion policies but money.

The Stance of Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu

Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has expressed his desire to challenge Austria’s decision to block Romania’s entry into the EU’s free travel zone at the European Court of Justice. According to Ciolacu, the damage caused by non-accession amounts to at least 2 percent of Romania’s GDP annually. He denied the increased migration through Romania and claimed that the country had introduced joint border controls with Serbia to address the concern.

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EU Support for Romania and Bulgaria’s Schengen Bids

EU lawmakers and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have expressed their support for Romania and Bulgaria’s Schengen bids. They have praised both countries for their approach to asylum and returns and have called on the Council of the EU to admit them into the Schengen area. The EU Commission spokesperson also shared the same opinion, stating that both countries have met all the necessary conditions to join the Schengen area for more than 10 years.

The Cost of Non-Accession to Schengen Area

Non-accession to the Schengen area has caused major damage both to the Romanian and Bulgarian economies and to the environment. The Association for Clean Energy and Climate Change submitted a petition to the European Parliament’s Petitions Committee, highlighting the massive pollution at borders where millions of cars wait for hours for checks. The resolution points out that citizens from Bulgaria and Romania are discriminated against as they face delays, bureaucratic difficulties, and extra costs when travelling or doing business abroad compared to their counterparts in the Schengen area. The delays faced by Romanians and Bulgarians can last from a few hours to even days compared to 10 minutes without internal border controls.