Azerbaijan’s Anti-Terrorist Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Shift in the South Caucasus Power Balance

Azerbaijan’s Anti-Terrorist Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Shift in the South Caucasus Power Balance

Azerbaijan’s Military Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan has launched what it has termed an ‘anti-terrorist operation’ in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. This region, which is home to over 120,000 Armenians, has been a hotbed of contention for more than three decades. Despite being legally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, the region has been heavily supported by Armenia and was even the focus of a war between the two nations in 2020.

Azerbaijani forces are now initiating a ground operation that aims to enforce the region under the rule of Ilham Aliyev’s state. This follows the encirclement and subsequent food supply cut-off of the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijani forces after the 2020 war. Observers suggest that it could only be a matter of days before his army enters Stepanakert, the region’s capital.

Role of Russian Peacekeeping Forces

Russia had dispatched over 2,000 soldiers as part of a peacekeeping mission in the region following the 2020 war. However, as of now, they have been notably passive, even as Azerbaijani Bayraktars, supplied by ally Turkey, destroy military targets in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia has appealed to the United Nations member states and the stationed Russian peacekeeping forces to halt the military actions of Azerbaijan.

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Unrest in Armenia

Meanwhile, protests are erupting in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, where demonstrators are attempting to break into the prime minister’s office. The protesters have labeled the Prime Minister a ‘traitor’ and are demanding his resignation. Forces opposing Nikol Pashinyan and pro-Russian forces have significant ties with Nagorno-Karabakh, as does the Armenian diaspora in Russia and other parts of the world.

Russia’s Stance

In Moscow, it is being suggested that Pashinyan is no longer suitable to rule Armenia. Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and currently Putin’s deputy in the Security Council, has pointed out all the ‘mistakes’ made by Pashinyan. He indicated that Russia’s passivity on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is related to Pashinyan’s attempts to seek help in the West, and his recent act of sending his wife with humanitarian aid to Kiev.

A Critical Power Balance

The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is indicative of the shifting power balance in the South Caucasus. With Azerbaijan actively seeking to reclaim the region and Russia remaining passively on the sidelines, there is an atmosphere of uncertainty and tension. Armenia is caught in the crossfire, with internal disputes adding to the external pressure. As the situation unfolds, the world watches closely to see how this will impact the future of the South Caucasus region.

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