Former Soviet States Diversify Ties with Middle East Amid Ukraine Crisis

As the Ukraine crisis continues, former Soviet states are actively seeking to diversify their links with Middle Eastern countries, focusing on economic cooperation and trade. Countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Georgia have taken neutral stances, carefully balancing their diplomatic actions between Russia and the West while developing ties with states that have offered neutral responses to the Ukraine war.

Why this matters: The diversification of ties between former Soviet states and Middle Eastern countries could have significant implications forglobal trade and economic power dynamics. As these states navigate the complex geopolitical landscape, their actions could potentially reshape the balance of power in the region and beyond.

Uzbekistan has taken a balanced position, maintaining strong relations with Moscow through multilateral engagements. The impact of Western sanctions on Russia has directly affected Uzbekistan's economy, which relies on high-tech imports from Russia. In 2022, the volume of goods and services supplied from Uzbekistan to Russia increased by nearly 50% to $3.06 billion. At the same time, Uzbekistan has tried to balance relations with the West, with Brussels providing a list of goods subject to EU sanctions in April 2023.

The Ukraine war has also contributed to the growing importance of the trans-Caspian international transport route linking the EU and China via Central Asia, Turkiye, and the Caucasus. In September 2022, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and China signed an agreement to develop a feasibility study for a trilateral railway project.

Despite speculation about Russia's diminished influence, Kazakhstan's economic ties with Russia have grown. The years 2022 and 2023 saw record trade between the two countries of $26 billion and $27 billion, respectively. Russia also controls Kazakhstan's main export route, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which exports 79% of Kazakh crude oil. As Kate Mallinson from Chatham House notes, "An arch diplomat, the Kazakh president will continue to attempt to balance, refraining from showing support for Russia's actions while not being accused by Moscow of acting against Russia."

Georgia, as a small state, has also taken a neutral stance, rejecting economic sanctions against Russia. With limited security guarantees, the country still has aspirations of joining the EU and NATO. However, the absence of then-Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili from last year's NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, highlights Russia's influence in Georgia.

Former Soviet states are also diversifying their links with Middle Eastern countries that have expressed neutrality and prioritized their national interests over the Ukraine war. In 2022, bilateral non-oil trade between Georgia and the UAE reached $468 million, a 110% increase over 2021, constituting 63% of Georgia's trade with the entire Arab world. Dr. Diana Galeeva observes, "The war has both required and offered opportunities for engagements with the EU and other Western partners, especially those based on soft power."

As former Soviet states navigate the complex geopolitical landscape shaped by the Ukraine crisis, their efforts to diversify economic ties and maintain a delicate balance between Russia and the West have led to increased engagement with Middle Eastern countries. With the trans-Caspian international transport route gaining importance and trade volumes growing, these states are strategically positioning themselves to weather the economic and diplomatic challenges posed by the ongoing conflict.

Key Takeaways

• Former Soviet states diversify ties with Middle Eastern countries amid Ukraine crisis.
• Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Georgia take neutral stances, balancing Russia and West.
• Trans-Caspian transport route gains importance, linking EU and China via Central Asia.
• Kazakhstan's trade with Russia reaches record $27 billion in 2023.
• Georgia's non-oil trade with UAE increases 110% to $468 million in 2022.