2024: The Golden Year for Property Buyers?
Public Expectation on Property Purchase
In a recent survey conducted by Yongqing Real Estate, 44% of respondents expressed their belief that 2024 would be the best time to buy a property. This data was gleaned from the period of August 18 to September 3, 2023, with a total of 1912 valid questionnaires collected. The report also highlighted that the proportion of people expecting a rise in property prices in the fourth quarter remained steady, while those anticipating a decline dropped from 33% to 31%, marking the third consecutive decrease.
Reasons for the 2024 Property Purchase Optimism
According to Ye Lingqi, the business manager of Yongqing Real Estate, three main factors influence the public’s intention to buy property next year. Ye predicts that presale housing sales this year will exceed a trillion dollars for the fourth consecutive year, suggesting the influence of the average land rights regulation has passed its peak. He also commented that property market cooling measures are not ineffective, but their impact has already been reflected in 2022. The number of transactions and the transaction amount have rebounded in the first eight months of this year, and transaction prices are also on the rise.
Expected Property Price Increase
The same report revealed that 72% of consumers across Taiwan anticipate a 5% increase in property prices, with more than half of those in Tainan and Hsinchu expecting an increase of over 10%. This trend of slowly rising property prices began in the second quarter following a drop in the first quarter. This trend is expected to continue until at least the end of the year. These property price fluctuations have been largely influenced by the inflation issue common globally.
Forecasted Transaction Volume in 2023
Yongqing Real Estate estimates the total volume of transactions in 2023 to be between 283,000 and 293,000 units, showing a decrease of 8 to 11% compared to the same period last year. However, this is roughly equivalent to the forecast for the fourth quarter of last year, suggesting that the market remains stable. The implementation of the new Qingan mortgage loan has stimulated young people’s willingness to buy houses, thereby increasing overall transactions. However, it remains to be seen whether this will lead to a substantial increase in overall transaction volume.
Selling Property: Not the Best Time
Interestingly, the survey also revealed that nearly 60% of consumers believe that the next six months is not the best time to sell their property. The reasons for the gradual rise in housing prices are attributed to three factors: the significant contraction in transaction volume in the fourth quarter of last year, the introduction of major policies, and the apparent tension in cross-strait relations. However, these factors are changing, and although the global economy is affected by interest rate hikes, the market is not as pessimistic as it once was.
Impact of the Property Hoarding Tax
The property hoarding tax impacts multiple property owners and developers, but does not affect those owning one to three properties. This tax introduction has been one of the major policies affecting the property market, influencing the decision-making of potential buyers and sellers.
In conclusion, it appears that 2024 may indeed be a promising year for potential property buyers. With the influence of several factors, including the passing peak of average land rights regulation, the expected increase in property prices, and the impact of the property hoarding tax, more individuals are expressing their intent to invest in properties in the coming year.
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