India to Withdraw All Military Personnel from Maldives by May 10 Deadline

India and the Maldives are currently in the process of replacing over 80 Indian military personnel, including pilots, stationed in the island nation with civilian technical experts. The Indian troops have been operating three aircraft in the Maldives for medical evacuations and humanitarian relief operations. The complete withdrawal is set to be finalized by May 10, a deadline insisted upon by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu.

Why this matters: The withdrawal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the bilateral relationship, with implications for regional power dynamics and security in the Indian Ocean. This development could also have broader consequences for India's influence in the region and its ability to project power.

The decision to replace the Indian military personnel was reviewed during the fourth meeting of the bilateral high-level core group held in Delhi on Friday. Both sides noted the progress made in the ongoing efforts to enable the continued operation of Indian aviation platforms that provide vital services to the Maldivian people. The Maldivian foreign ministry stated, "Both sides noted with satisfaction that the Government of India will replace military personnel at the last of the three aviation platforms by 10 May and all the logistical arrangements are going ahead as per schedule."

India has already withdrawn two batches of military personnel from the Maldives in March and April, replacing them with civilian experts. The complete withdrawal of the remaining Indian troops by the May 10 deadline aligns with President Muizzu's campaign promise to remove foreign military presence from the country. Muizzu, widely seen as a pro-China leader, has taken steps to reduce the Maldives' dependence on India since coming to power in November 2023.

The Maldivian government has recently finalized agreements with Sri Lanka, China, and Turkiye in areas such as maritime security, healthcare, and food security. These moves are seen as an effort to diversify the country's partnerships and reduce its reliance on India. The shift in the Maldives' foreign policy under Muizzu has led to strained bilateral ties between India and the Maldives, which had previously witnessed an upward trajectory under the former government in Male.

The bilateral high-level core group, set up following a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Muizzu on the sidelines of the COP28 summit in Dubai last December, also discussed a range of issues related to bilateral cooperation. These included defense cooperation, development projects, efforts to enhance trade and investment, and capacity-building initiatives. The next meeting of the high-level core group is expected to be held in Male in June or July 2024.

With the May 10 deadline approaching, the withdrawal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the bilateral relationship. While India has been a key partner for the Maldives in various sectors, the changing geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean region has prompted the island nation to reevaluate its foreign policy priorities. The Maldives seeks to strike a balance between its relationships with regional powers, but the future of India-Maldives ties remains uncertain.

Key Takeaways

• India to withdraw 80+ military personnel from Maldives by May 10.
• Personnel to be replaced with civilian technical experts.
• Maldives seeks to reduce dependence on India, diversify partnerships.
• Move marks significant shift in India-Maldives bilateral relationship.
• Future of India-Maldives ties uncertain amidst changing regional dynamics.